In pace, ut sapiens, aptarit idonea bello.
“In peace, like a wise man, he appropriately prepares for war.”
Minus the protracted skirmishes between Israeli forces and Palestinian protestors, considered as part of day to day life in the area, the State of Israel is not presently at war although there are strong indications that they are training their guns for a possible armed conflict with Iran. The oracle on the wall provokes us to ponder if future Israeli-Iranian war breaks out or not. The progenies of the two ancient cultures and civilizations know what war is as proven by their histories and epic battles centuries if not millennia ago. That was an era where primitive but reliable weapons like an arrow or spear were used in the battlefield.
Today, 21st century, it is a totally different thing. John F. Kennedy warned: “The world is very different now. For man holds in his mortal hands the power to abolish all forms . . . of human life.” That was roughly half century ago since delivering his famous inaugural address. Since then, warfare technology tremendously developed while researchers work 24/7 on how to make weapons in arsenals more lethal, accurate and devastating.
Israel, a tiny country, is surrounded by its perennial foes since its establishment as a State. From its independence in 1948, Israel has fought dozens of epic battles against neighboring bigger Arab countries that always suffered tremendous defeat as in the Six-Day War of 1967 and the Yom Kippur War in 1973.
Time and again, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a Holocaust skeptic has called for the destruction of Israel or its transfer to other location as a protest to the plight of the Palestinians in the occupied territories. The State of Israel, constantly on the look out for its survival, cannot ill-afford to lower its guards from a possible Iranian attack prologued by innuendos of its president.
The recent test-firing of a new Iranian medium-range surface to surface missile Sejil-2 with a range of at least 1,200 miles seems to be a message intended for Israel. That test was quickly condemned by the United States and some European countries as well.
Strong Israeli and American diplomatic statements indicate that Iran must never be tolerated to possess nuclear weapons. A nuclear-weapon-quipped Iran can start nuclear arms race in the region and pose as a threat to the existence of Israel. Adm. Mike Mullen, speaking before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee said that if Iran is successful in its nuclear quest it would be "calamitous for the region and for the world." Iran on the other hand is consistent in its claim that its nuclear program has no military dimension --- purely civil.
Israel, long believed to possess stockpiles of nuclear weapon in its arsenal is impatient with the status quo distrusting Iran’s intentions and unhopeful that Iran like Saul on his way to Damascus will find conversion of intent. In what looks to be an ultimatum, Israel gives Pres. Obama till the end of the year to compel Iran to go to the negotiating table or engage in diplomatic solutions in halting its nuclear quest. When everything fails, both the United States and Israel say that all options are on the roadmap to discourage Iran’s nuclear ambitions. In the recent US trip of PM Netanyahu, Pres. Obama warned that should Israel attack Iran, the US must be informed beforehand.
Wire reports say that Israel is training hard for a possible Iranian attack by staging massive military exercise and simulating war scenarios where Israel defends from an all out war with rogue Arab countries with the possible exception of Egypt and Jordan that have peace treaties with the Jewish State.
All indications suggest that concerned parties show no intention to blink. If an eye-blink is possible, that is translated into a “war”! Iran is determined to pursue its nuclear program while Israel is also steadfast in defending its existence.
In the event of an all out war between Iran and Israel, other countries might be involved assuming that Israel acts alone without the help of the United States. Syria and Lebanon are possible to join the fray and side Iran, their patron and supplier of arms. Saudi Arabia and other gulf countries may clandestinely help Iran in a way or the other while crippled Iraq cannot promise any aid. Jordan and Egypt cannot be on the sidelines. As friends of the Jewish State, they will be instrument of peace in appeasing the warring factions to observe détente.
If war breaks (I pray hard, it will not.), Iran possibly closes the Strait of Hormuz. Any attempt of the US to reopen it could be answered by a missile attack on their bases in Diego Garcia and/or to their troops in Iraq. If and when the US is involved, their response to Iran will be devastating and decisive.
Since the Iranian Revolution, Iran develops and manufactures its military hardware that include tanks, armored personnel carriers, submarines and fighter planes while Israel has one of the most advanced weaponry today. Iran cannot rely on its American-made obsolete fighter jets to match Israel’s F-15s and F-16s. Iran would heavily depend on its missile system which Israel’ anti-missile defense system has the capability to thwart. Iran on the other hand has no clear answer on how to defend itself from an Israeli ballistic missile attack.
When Iranian radars will be scrambled by Israel, the Jewish State would pound Iran’s known nuclear facility locations using its accurate bunker-buster missiles possibly from the land, sea and air. Since it is war, casualties are expected from both sides.
When the smoke of war clears, there will be no victors --- all vanquished. History cannot prove that war is an effective weapon toward the achievement of peace. If the war breaks, Iran cannot be stopped to pursue a more vigorous nuclear program. War only postpones the day when there will be nuclear Iran and there is no guarantee that Israel will just sit down waiting for its destruction. An Iranian-Israeli war ignites a protracted cycle of war between them if not between the Arabs and Israel.
In the meantime “In pace, ut sapiens, aptarit idonea bello.” But like a wise man, Iran and Israel must know that the problem is not so much today but the future when the result means disaster.
Once again, let there be peace in the Middle East and around the world.-30-
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